Tech relief rally hits a Fed brick wall — fade the Microsoft bounce
Tech stocks are bouncing as Middle East tensions cool, but the broader macroeconomic backdrop remains highly restrictive. The Federal Reserve's strict inflation-fighting stance has pushed major tech names like Microsoft to historic monthly lows, creating a high-risk environment for this relief rally.
Idea
Dip buyers are stepping in as US-Iran tensions fade, but the structural risk remains intact. Citadel Securities is explicitly warning that the new Fed chair is determined to fight inflation, which will act as a major drag on risk assets like tech stocks. Microsoft is currently suffering its worst month since the dot-com crash in 2000. While the geopolitical de-escalation provides a short-term window for a relief bounce, the macroeconomic headwinds mean any rally is likely fragile and short-lived.
What happened since
| Symbol | Dir | T+1 | T+5 | T+20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | LONG | +1.28% ✓ | +6.02% ✓ | — |
Price change since publication · updated Jul 11