Oil crashing 20% as Iran peace deal nears — ride the energy stock selloff
Oil prices have already fallen 20% from their 2026 peak as investors bet the U.S. and Iran will finalize a peace deal. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the supply squeeze that sent prices soaring could unwind fast.
Idea
Global oil prices have already retreated 20% from their peak on hopes that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil shipping lane. Before the conflict, roughly 20% of the world's oil passed through that strait every day — so unlocking it would flood supply back into the market. Energy stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron tend to move in the same direction as oil prices. If the deal gets signed, these stocks could keep sliding as the oil premium evaporates. Even if talks stall, the market has already priced in a lot of good news, leaving energy shares vulnerable to any disappointment.