Oil crashing 20% on Iran peace hopes — keep betting on lower energy prices
Oil has already fallen 20% from its 2026 peak, and President Trump just announced that a 'final determination' on an Iran peace deal is coming soon. If a ceasefire is reached, the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most important oil shipping lane — could reopen, which would send even more oil flooding into the market.
Idea
Oil's 20% drop from its peak has been driven entirely by the prospect of an Iran ceasefire reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is now publicly saying a deal is close, which means the single biggest risk to oil prices — the Hormuz shutdown that started the Iran war in February — could be resolved within days. If the strait reopens, a massive amount of trapped oil supply hits the market, pushing prices even lower. The trend is already your friend here: oil has been making lower highs and lower lows, and each fresh headline about a potential deal adds more downward pressure.