Oil crashing 20% on Iran peace hopes — buy Treasury bonds as inflation pressure eases
Oil prices have fallen 20% from their 2026 peak as President Trump signals the U.S. is close to a deal to end the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, government bonds are having their best week since the war started in February, because lower oil means lower inflation pressure.
Idea
The Strait of Hormuz closure in February caused a massive energy shock that drove oil prices up and bond prices down. Now a ceasefire deal looks increasingly likely — Trump himself says a 'final determination' is coming. If the strait reopens, oil could keep falling because the original supply disruption would be reversing. That's great for bonds: lower energy costs mean less inflation, which makes government bonds more attractive. Treasuries are already on track for their best week since the war began, and if a deal actually gets signed, this trade has more room to run.