Strait of Hormuz shutdown could last months — oil stocks still have room to run
Iran has halted peace talks and is threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route. Industry experts now believe the supply disruption will last through the end of 2026, even if the waterway reopens soon.
Idea
Roughly 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has now completely walked away from negotiations and is vowing to block it. Oil industry analysts are telling OPEC itself that the disruption will drag on through year-end — that's not speculation, that's the consensus view of people who move markets. When a supply shock this severe gets priced in over months rather than days, oil stocks tend to grind higher as earnings expectations get revised up week after week. The major oil companies are still trading well below what sustained $80+ oil would justify.