# Bond traders begging for rate hikes — contrarian setup in Treasuries if Fed surprises

_AI-generated trading idea · LONG · TLT_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/bond-traders-begging-for-rate-hikes-contrarian-setup-in-trea--fff08fb9-835e-4527-832d-6fd1bf47cbd5

Bond traders are aggressively expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to fight stubbornly high inflation, which would drive mortgage and credit card rates even higher.

## Idea

Bond traders are practically begging the Fed to hike interest rates, which means this expectation is already baked into current bond prices. Long-term Treasury bonds have been crushed lately as yields surged. If the Fed ultimately decides to pause to avoid crashing the economy, bond prices will snap back violently higher. Buying bonds while everyone is terrified is a classic contrarian play.

## Key details

- Symbols: TLT
- Timeframes: H4
- Tags: \#bonds, \#rates, \#macro

## Community

- Upvotes: 18
- Views: 0
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [Bond traders are begging new Fed chair Kevin Warsh for a rate hike — no matter the impact to your credit card bills](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/bond-traders-begging-fed-chair-133000194.html) — Yahoo Finance

## Related ideas

- [Oil supply shock hits as US blocks Iran sales — go long on major oil producers](https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/oil-supply-shock-hits-as-us-blocks-iran-sales-go-long-on-maj--b13ef547-50e6-4fc7-a2fa-c7f6debd347d)
- [Global panic selling hits tech and Middle East at once — buy the Nasdaq dip](https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/global-panic-selling-hits-tech-and-middle-east-at-once-buy-t--df445990-703d-4647-b68b-fa62d64b4ead)
- [US blocks Iranian oil and bombs the country — go long energy stocks as crude surges](https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/us-blocks-iranian-oil-and-bombs-the-country-go-long-energy-s--16a8aab7-6a50-4801-b944-7867e4541f48)

## Related

- [TLT trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/tlt)
- [Latest market news](https://commonquant.ai/news)