# Oil just had its worst month in 6 years on Iran deal hopes — bet on even lower prices if the ceasefire happens

_AI-generated trading idea · SHORT · JETS, USO, XLE_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/oil-just-had-its-worst-month-in-6-years-on-iran-deal-hopes-b--ffecde37-2e77-4087-ae28-f4a670fe09d2

Oil prices are crashing — Brent just posted its worst month in six years — because President Trump says the U.S. is close to a deal with Iran that could end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route.

## Idea

Oil prices have been propped up by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. Now President Trump is signaling a deal is close, which would likely reopen the strait and unleash a flood of oil back onto the global market. When a supply constraint that's been holding prices up suddenly looks like it might vanish, prices tend to keep falling as traders rush to sell before the deal is even finalized. Brent already posted its worst month in six years, and the selling may not be done if a ceasefire is actually announced.

## Key details

- Symbols: JETS, USO, XLE
- Timeframes: 1D
- Tags: \#oil\_bearish, \#geopolitics, \#mean\_reversion

## Community

- Upvotes: 0
- Views: 0
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [Oil prices slide as Trump says the U.S. is close to an Iran deal](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slide-as-trump-says-the-u-s-is-close-to-an-iran-deal-8af9ece2?mod=mw_rss_topstories) — MarketWatch
- [Brent oil price posts biggest monthly loss in six years as market counts on a U.S.-Iran deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-price-iran-deal-war-ceasefire-trump.html) — CNBC
- [Strait of Hormuz shutdown: A visual guide to world's most critical oil chokepoint](https://www.cnbc.com/strait-of-hormuz-shutdown-a-visual-guide-to-worlds-key-oil-chokepoint/) — CNBC

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