# Silver is quietly outperforming gold, up over 18% in a single month, and analysts see the precious-metals run continuing through the end of the month. When both metals climb together, silver typically amplifies the move because it's a smaller, more volati _AI-generated trading idea · BULLISH · PSLV, SLV_ > Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/silver-is-quietly-outperforming-gold-up-over-18-in-a-single--f64d9bf4-4a19-4985-b005-581d032af276 Silver is quietly outperforming gold, up over 18% in a single month, and analysts see the precious-metals run continuing through the end of the month. When both metals climb together, silver typically amplifies the move because it's a smaller, more volatile market. Riding the trend in silver while it stays above its recent range is a way to capture that momentum, with the gold strength acting as confirmation that this is a broad precious-metals move rather than a one-off pop. ## Idea Silver is quietly outperforming gold, up over 18% in a single month, and analysts see the precious-metals run continuing through the end of the month. When both metals climb together, silver typically amplifies the move because it's a smaller, more volatile market. Riding the trend in silver while it stays above its recent range is a way to capture that momentum, with the gold strength acting as confirmation that this is a broad precious-metals move rather than a one-off pop. ## Advanced Analysis ### Verdict: the silver trend is real, but you're late to the party — wait for the pullback The five-year backtest gives the thesis genuine teeth — 85.2% total return across 11 trades at a 63.6% win rate, confirmed in the shorter 24-month window (52.7% return) — and the live trend regime is unusually strong, with ADX at 54 against a 20 threshold. But the strategy's natural entry (the crossover back above the 20-day average) happened days ago: buying now means joining roughly 8% above the average that defines the trade, with a 2% stop that sits inside normal daily noise for an instrument that just moved 18% in a month, per the Yahoo Finance coverage. Worse, the profits in both equity curves are heavily concentrated in the recent vertical move — more than half the five-year return came from one melt-up — and the exit trigger (RSI above 75) is only 2.7 points away on PSLV. The cross-structure analysis also shows PSLV and SLV are essentially one trade (0.99 correlation), so there is no diversification to be had between them. Conviction: thesis support 65 (the trend-following logic is confirmed in two windows, but the gains are concentrated in one move), trade readiness 35 (entry condition is stale and the overbought exit is near), risk quality 40 (a 2% stop versus ~50% annualized volatility and daily-bar exit fills that may overstate quality), backtest evidence 60 (real, completed record, but no robust parameter setup was established and exits are approximate), fundamentals trend 55 (a clean, debt-free physical trust, but its 'fundamentals' are just silver prices with a history of swinging from +30% to -15% ROE). #### Conviction score breakdown Composite score computed by the server from the applicable evidence-tier dimensions. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Thesis support | 65/100 | | Trade readiness | 35/100 | | Risk quality | 40/100 | | Backtest evidence | 60/100 | | Fundamentals trend | 55/100 | | Score | 51/100 | | Composite Score | 51/100 | | Evidence Tier | backtested | #### Decision scenarios Bull, base, and bear cases synthesized from the cited evidence tier. Likelihoods are rounded evidence-weighted judgments, not statistically calibrated forecasts. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Evidence Tier | backtested | ### Trade now The setup is live and largely satisfied. PSLV closed at $22.71, and three of the four entry conditions are already met: the 20-day exponential average ($20.99) sits above the 50-day ($20.77), price is above the 20-day average by $1.72 (about 8.2%), and the 14-day ADX reads 54.0 — far above the 20 threshold that confirms a genuine trend. The condition that is \*not\* freshly triggered today is the crossover itself (price crossing above the 20-day average), which happened days ago. That means the strategy's natural entry point has passed; today you would be joining a trend already in motion, roughly 8% above the moving average that defines it. If you act now, the risk controls are explicit. The hard stop is a 2% loss — on a $22.71 entry, that is roughly $22.26 — and the profit target is 4%, roughly $23.62, giving an effective reward-to-risk of 2:1. There is also a structural stop at the second support shelf, with the nearest support shelf at $22.51 and the next at $22.97 in the supplied levels. Note the tension: a 2% stop sits inside normal daily noise for a fund whose realized volatility runs near 42% annualized with heavy left-tail skew (PSLV's downside deviation is 0.388 daily), so expect to be shaken out on modest pullbacks even if the trend holds. The completed backtest over 60 months on PSLV produced an 85.2% total return across 11 trades with a 63.6% win rate, but a 26.8% maximum drawdown — this strategy earns its return by absorbing deep, multi-month drawdowns (the 24-month window drew down 30.0%). Exits were filled on daily bars rather than intraday, so treat those fills as approximate. "Wait" means something concrete here: hold off unless PSLV pulls back toward the 20-day average near $20.99 and turns back up, which would re-arm the crossover entry at a better price with the stop closer to your fill. #### PSLV price and trigger map Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Ticker | PSLV | | Timeframe | 1d | #### SLV price and trigger map Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Ticker | SLV | | Timeframe | 1d | ### The momentum trade that actually worked — for five years running The thesis here is simple: when gold and silver climb together, silver amplifies the move, and riding the trend captures it. The backtest gives that argument real teeth. Over the trailing 60-month window on PSLV (the traded vehicle), the EMA/ADX crossover setup produced a total return of 85.2% across 11 trades with a 63.6% win rate, against a maximum drawdown of 26.8%. That is a favorable asymmetry for a momentum system: roughly two of every three entries paid, and the equity curve spent most of the last two years climbing steeply rather than churning. What makes the numbers more credible is that the thesis is confirmed in two independent windows. The shorter 24-month run returned 52.7% on 9 trades with a 55.6% win rate and a 30% worst drawdown — lower win rate, but still strongly positive. When a trend rule works in both a five-year and… #### PSLV Return on equity Return on equity trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +444.1% from first to latest point. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | 2016-12-31 | \0.10313427990476882% | | 2017-12-31 | \0.052437257858754895% | | 2018-12-31 | \-0.10018570767305374% | | 2019-12-31 | \0.11705513932196056% | | 2020-12-31 | \0.3002008044637981% | | 2021-12-31 | \-0.15263834920645503% | | 2022-12-31 | \0.02522921484368221% | | 2023-12-31 | \-0.013154952488837888% | | 2024-12-31 | \0.15709774038243568% | | 2025-12-31 | \0.5611396479865425% | | Latest Value | \0.5611396479865425% | | Change Pct | \444.0864555458015% | | Ticker | PSLV | | Timeframe | reported periods | #### PSLV sector percentile check Ranks PSLV against 896 companies in its sector using CommonQuant fundamentals. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Return on equity | \97.93526785714286th percentile | | Ticker | PSLV | | Sector | Financials | | Peer Count | 896 | ### Scores - **Conviction score breakdown:** 51 - **Thesis support:** 65 - **Trade readiness:** 35 - **Risk quality:** 40 - **Backtest evidence:** 60 - **Fundamentals trend:** 55 ### Watch items - **PSLV — RSI (14)** - **SLV — RSI (14)** - **PSLV — ADX (14)** - **PSLV — Daily close vs EMA (20)** - **PSLV — Pullback to EMA (20)** - **PSLV — EMA (20) above EMA (50)** - **PSLV — Price crossed above EMA (20)** - **PSLV — ADX (14) above 20** - **PSLV — Price above EMA (20)** ## Key details - Symbols: PSLV, SLV - Timeframes: 1d - Tags: \#canonical-demand, \#cluster-version:1, \#direction:bullish, \#entity-kind:instrument, \#entity:PSLV, \#entity:SLV, \#horizon:unspecified, \#intent:research, \#symbol:PSLV, \#symbol:SLV ## Community - Upvotes: 0 - Views: 0 - Copies: 0 - Cosigns: 0 ## News sources - [Silver prices today, Monday, August 24, 2026: Why silver remains on a roll, up over 18% month-over-month](https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/silver-prices-today-monday-august-24-2026-why-silver-remains-on-a-roll-up-over-18-month-over-month-124600654.html) — Yahoo Finance - [Gold prices today, Monday, August 24, 2026: 'Gold to stay hot through the end of the month'](https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/gold-prices-today-monday-august-24-2026-gold-to-stay-hot-through-the-end-of-the-month-123911561.html) — Yahoo Finance ## Related - [PSLV trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/pslv) - [SLV trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/slv) - [Latest market news](https://commonquant.ai/news) ## About CommonQuant Research Ideas and Advanced Analysis are generated with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines and grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles. Strategies built from these ideas are automatically backtested (12-month and 5-year, walk-forward tuned) and stress-tested before they can go live, then monitored against the news hourly while they run.