# Oil posts worst month in six years on Iran deal hopes — fade energy stocks

_AI-generated trading idea · SHORT · USO, XLE_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/oil-posts-worst-month-in-six-years-on-iran-deal-hopes-fade-e--ef4068d7-a6d5-436a-bfa4-2b1ad261d597

Oil prices just posted their worst monthly drop in six years as President Trump signals the U.S. is close to a deal with Iran that could end the conflict and reopen critical shipping routes. If a deal happens, the oil supply shock that pushed prices up earlier this year could fully reverse.

## Idea

The Strait of Hormuz shutdown in February caused a massive energy shock that inflated oil prices. Now Trump is signaling a deal with Iran is imminent, which would reopen that critical shipping route and unleash pent-up supply. Oil has already posted its worst month in six years, but the full deal hasn't even been signed yet — meaning more downside is likely if the ceasefire materializes. Energy stocks, as tracked by XLE, tend to move with oil prices and could fall further as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds. The key risk is that the deal falls apart, which would snap prices back up quickly.

## Key details

- Symbols: USO, XLE
- Timeframes: daily
- Tags: \#energy, \#geopolitics, \#mean\_reversion

## Community

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## News sources

- [Brent oil price posts biggest monthly loss in six years as market counts on a U.S.-Iran deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-price-iran-deal-war-ceasefire-trump.html) — CNBC
- [Oil prices slide as Trump says the U.S. is close to an Iran deal](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slide-as-trump-says-the-u-s-is-close-to-an-iran-deal-8af9ece2?mod=mw_rss_topstories) — MarketWatch

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