# Oil suffering worst month in six years as Iran deal nears — ride the crude crash and buy airlines

_AI-generated trading idea · SHORT · JETS, USO, XLE_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/oil-suffering-worst-month-in-six-years-as-iran-deal-nears-ri--e13ef952-c10c-4837-ad3d-514e75e7dfd1

Oil prices just suffered their worst month in six years after President Trump said a deal to end the Iran conflict is imminent. A ceasefire would reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway that handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil — and unleash a flood of supply back onto the market.

## Idea

Brent crude just posted its steepest monthly decline since 2020, and the selling may not be over. The entire reason oil spiked earlier this year — the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz shutdown — could reverse in a single announcement if Trump greenlights a ceasefire. Reopening Hormuz would allow millions of barrels of trapped supply to flow again, driving prices even lower. Meanwhile energy stocks in the XLE fund are still priced for higher oil than where we are now, making them vulnerable to further cuts. On the flip side, airlines love cheap fuel — a falling oil price is a direct boost to their profit margins.

## Key details

- Symbols: JETS, USO, XLE
- Timeframes: daily
- Tags: \#macro, \#energy, \#geopolitics

## Community

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## News sources

- [Strait of Hormuz shutdown: A visual guide to world's most critical oil chokepoint](https://www.cnbc.com/strait-of-hormuz-shutdown-a-visual-guide-to-worlds-key-oil-chokepoint/) — CNBC
- [Brent oil price posts biggest monthly loss in six years as market counts on a U.S.-Iran deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-price-iran-deal-war-ceasefire-trump.html) — CNBC
- [Oil prices slide as Trump says the U.S. is close to an Iran deal](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slide-as-trump-says-the-u-s-is-close-to-an-iran-deal-8af9ece2?mod=mw_rss_topstories) — MarketWatch

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