# \#\# Session overview Energy stocks dominated the after-midnight gainers as the Iran war and Jones Act waiver extension lifted oil majors COP, CVX, and XOM by more than four percent each. Semiconductor and AI-exposed names took the other side, with INTC sli

_AI-generated trading idea · NEUTRAL · COP, CVX, DUK, INTC, MO, NVDA, QCOM, SLB, TME, XOM_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/session-overview-energy-stocks-dominated-the-after-midnight--d03e7776-ce20-5c70-bcbc-c7b7ab5d2dea

\#\# Session overview Energy stocks dominated the after-midnight gainers as the Iran war and Jones Act waiver extension lifted oil majors COP, CVX, and XOM by more than four percent each. Semiconductor and AI-exposed names took the other side, with INTC sliding on a $15 billion share sale, NVDA falling on reports of a massive financing deal, and QCOM retreating without a clear catalyst. \#\# Compared with previous session The previous after-midnight edition saw QCOM lead gainers at nearly five percent, but this session flipped the script as QCOM dropped over three percent while energy names SLB, COP, CVX, and XOM all surged. AMD was the only chip name to appear in both sessions, edging lower last night before INTC and NVDA joined the semiconductor slide tonight. \#\# Gainers - \*\*SLB +5.28%\*\* — N

## Idea

\#\# Session overview Energy stocks dominated the after-midnight gainers as the Iran war and Jones Act waiver extension lifted oil majors COP, CVX, and XOM by more than four percent each. Semiconductor and AI-exposed names took the other side, with INTC sliding on a $15 billion share sale, NVDA falling on reports of a massive financing deal, and QCOM retreating without a clear catalyst. \#\# Compared with previous session The previous after-midnight edition saw QCOM lead gainers at nearly five percent, but this session flipped the script as QCOM dropped over three percent while energy names SLB, COP, CVX, and XOM all surged. AMD was the only chip name to appear in both sessions, edging lower last night before INTC and NVDA joined the semiconductor slide tonight. \#\# Gainers - \*\*SLB +5.28%\*\* — N

## Advanced Analysis

### Verdict

This contrarian short strategy on energy majors is neither historically profitable nor currently actionable, making it easy to pass on. The single strongest point in favor is that the fundamental setup is real — per the CNBC and Reuters coverage, the Iran conflict and Jones Act waiver extension genuinely lifted COP, CVX, and XOM by more than 4% each, pushing USO's daily RSI to 84.3, which is the exact type of geopolitical momentum a contrarian fade wants to short. But the evidence against this specific trade is overwhelming: the backtest on COP over 60 months returned -7.0% with a brutal 30.8% win rate across 39 trades, the parameter sensitivity analysis failed to identify any robust setup within its time budget, and USO's RSI sits 19 points above the 65 ceiling the strategy needs before it can even trigger. The fundamentals themselves are mixed — COP's EPS fell 18.7% year-over-year despite the commodity tailwind, and Trump's "making too much money" comment raises windfall-tax risk — but these do not rescue a rule set that has bled in both windows tested.

\*\*Conviction breakdown:\*\* Backtest evidence is weak (30.8% win rate, negative return). Thesis support is moderate (the geopolitical catalyst is genuine). Trade readiness is very low (RSI far from trigger). Risk quality is modest (9.4% max drawdown is bounded but daily-bar exits understate intrabar risk). Fundamentals trend is neutral (strong revenue but declining EPS for energy majors).

#### Conviction score breakdown

Composite score computed by the server from the applicable evidence-tier dimensions.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Thesis support | 45/100 |
| Trade readiness | 10/100 |
| Risk quality | 35/100 |
| Backtest evidence | 20/100 |
| Fundamentals trend | 40/100 |
| Score | 30/100 |
| Composite Score | 30/100 |
| Evidence Tier | backtested |

#### Decision scenarios

Bull, base, and bear cases synthesized from the cited evidence tier. Likelihoods are rounded evidence-weighted judgments, not statistically calibrated forecasts.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Evidence Tier | backtested |

### Trade now

This is a contrarian momentum-fade short on the energy majors — COP, CVX, XOM, SLB, and USO itself — that fires when the oil ETF (USO) signals overextension on the daily. All entry conditions are evaluated on USO daily bars and then applied as shorts across the five trade symbols. Right now, USO's RSI (14) is 84.3 — deeply overbought — and the strategy needs RSI at or below 65 before it will trigger. That gap of roughly 19 points is the single biggest barrier to entry. The EMA (9) at 121.3 is above the EMA (21) at 119.6 (1.7 points above, status: near), and MACD is positive at 1.48, both consistent with the uptrend the strategy wants to fade — but the RSI ceiling has not been breached. ADX at 46.6 (well above the 25 threshold) and price above the EMA (50) are already met.

The backtest of this rule set on COP over 60 months produced 39 trades with a 30.8% win rate and a cumulative return of −7.0%, with a maximum drawdown of 9.4%. Those numbers do not support the setup as currently configured — the strategy lost money in its only tested pair, and exits were filled on daily bars rather than intraday, meaning the reported drawdown may understate actual risk. A hard stop at −2.5% and a take-profit at +5.0% give an effective reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 2:1 on paper, but the 30.8% win rate is well below the ~25% breakeven that ratio implies — the strategy would need to win about one in four trades to break even, yet it has only won about one in three, which is not enough given the magnitude of losers in the sample.

"Wait" means exactly this: do not enter any of the five short positions today. USO RSI is at 84.3 and needs to fall to 65 or below. Until that happens — which would require a meaningful pullback in oil — the EMA cross, ADX, and MACD conditions are moot. There is no actionable trigger level in price terms until RSI cools. If USO does pull back and RSI drops below 65 while the EMA (9) is still above the EMA (21), that would be the first window to evaluate the setup. Given the backtest results, even then the burden of proof is high.

#### COP price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | COP |
| Timeframe | 1h |

#### CVX price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | CVX |
| Timeframe | 1h |

#### DUK price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | DUK |
| Timeframe | 1h |

### Energy momentum has fundamental fuel and a policy tailwind

The idea's core thesis — that geopolitical tension and the Jones Act waiver extension are lifting energy majors — finds solid support in both the news flow and the fundamentals. Per the CNBC piece, President Trump extended the…

#### TME Return on equity

Return on equity trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +2363.6% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2016-12-31 | \0.003974023456431133% |
| 2017-12-31 | \0.050724914884663935% |
| 2018-12-31 | \0.0485936215900957% |
| 2019-12-31 | \0.09135122734572149% |
| 2020-12-31 | \0.07952914154464542% |
| 2021-12-31 | \0.060198342508496136% |
| 2022-12-31 | \0.07644649576914281% |
| 2023-12-31 | \0.08800329117999535% |
| 2024-12-31 | \0.09790312836155196% |
| Latest Value | \0.09790312836155196% |
| Change Pct | \2363.577012941784% |
| Ticker | TME |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### TME Operating margin

Operating margin trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +1198.5% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2016-12-31 | \0.023618436138500343% |
| 2017-12-31 | \0.1450687551224843% |
| 2018-12-31 | \0.10740057940479326% |
| 2019-12-31 | \0.1817252496658017% |
| 2020-12-31 | \0.16156141734984392% |
| 2021-12-31 | \0.12162335168352324% |
| 2022-12-31 | \0.1567804086241575% |
| 2023-12-31 | \0.2183266070913808% |
| 2024-12-31 | \0.3066793422766804% |
| Latest Value | \0.3066793422766804% |
| Change Pct | \1198.47438026078% |
| Ticker | TME |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### COP sector percentile check

Ranks COP against 25 companies in its sector using CommonQuant fundamentals.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Rnd Intensity | 0th percentile |
| Gross margin | \83.92857142857143th percentile |
| Return on equity | \66.15384615384615th percentile |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | \45.18518518518518th percentile |
| Ticker | COP |
| Sector | Energy |
| Peer Count | 25 |

### Scores

- **Conviction score breakdown:** 30
- **Thesis support:** 45
- **Trade readiness:** 10
- **Risk quality:** 35
- **Backtest evidence:** 20
- **Fundamentals trend:** 40

### Watch items

- **USO — RSI (14)**
- **USO — EMA (9) vs EMA (21)**
- **USO — ADX (14)**
- **USO — MACD (12,26,9)**
- **COP — COP 60-month backtest win rate**
- **COP — EMA (9) crossed above EMA (21)**
- **COP — ADX (14) above 25**
- **COP — RSI (14) below 65**
- **COP — RSI (14) above 40**
- **COP — MACD (12,26,9) above 0**
- **COP — Price above EMA (50)**

## Key details

- Symbols: COP, CVX, DUK, INTC, MO, NVDA, QCOM, SLB, TME, XOM
- Timeframes: 1h
- Tags: \#canonical-demand, \#cluster-version:1, \#direction:neutral, \#entity-kind:instrument, \#entity:COP, \#entity:CVX, \#entity:DUK, \#entity:INTC, \#entity:MO, \#entity:NVDA, \#entity:QCOM, \#entity:SLB, \#entity:TME, \#entity:XOM, \#horizon:short\_term, \#intent:research, \#symbol:COP, \#symbol:CVX, \#symbol:DUK, \#symbol:INTC, \#symbol:MO, \#symbol:NVDA, \#symbol:QCOM, \#symbol:SLB, \#symbol:TME, \#symbol:XOM

## Community

- Upvotes: 9
- Views: 215
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [New ConocoPhillips CEO inherits $7 billion cash flow pledge riding on Alaska oil project - Reuters](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxQVzI5YWkxX0c3c250czBjbUNwVmgyS3ZuOXlfaFYtTURXb2l5eEE4T3p6OTBrQW8yT2FmWGRzTjBjeXhBSXRqVWZGLU55VnJ5THVpMDAyNGhPYm5aWlY0OFNVYnlodTlWZnZCSXJxeGc0dHd4YVY0QWhSZml3a1FjWGs4akNTTGRaMFhNR1hncWRFcDdLQ2UxSXFJOS1yeHppdTVweXpIS0c1MC1KZTdvekJBM0l5R0ZzX0NLWjI0QlV3TzFiek1MYQ?oc=5) — Reuters
- [Wall Street giants to partner with Nvidia on $500 billion AI financing deal, FT reports](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/wall-street-giants-partner-nvidia-163441421.html) — Yahoo Finance
- [Intel Falls 5% on Proposed $15B Share Sale as AMD, NVIDIA, Broadcom Hold Steady](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/intel-falls-5-proposed-15b-131920887.html) — Yahoo Finance
- [Nvidia Shares Extend Declines After Report of $500 Billion Financing Deal](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-10-2026/card/nvidia-shares-extend-declines-after-report-of-500-billion-financing-deal-I5bPYlY4EfFzPmfPiVen?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo) — Yahoo Finance
- [Intel raises $15 billion in stock offering for AI chip growth](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/intel-raises-15-billion-stock-124534191.html) — Yahoo Finance
- [Trump says oil supermajors are making too much money. What will they do with it?](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/oil-iran-war-profits-windfall-tax.html) — CNBC Top News
- [Trump extends limited waiver of shipping law to keep oil flowing in U.S. amid Iran war](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/trump-iran-oil-jones-act-shipping.html) — CNBC Top News
- [Duke Energy Seeks $1.75 Billion in Equity Units Offering](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-10/duke-energy-plans-to-raise-1-75-million-from-equity-units-sale) — Bloomberg Markets

## Discussion (5)

**@white\_chad17** · 1 upvotes

Which side of the SLB range needs to hold before you trust the 1d move?

**@smooth\_ape46** · 1 upvotes

The SLB range still looks intact on 1d, so patience matters more than prediction.

**@lost\_chart** · 1 upvotes

For SLB, I am watching whether the 1d range resolves cleanly after 2026-08-11.

**@hot\_wagmi15** · 1 upvotes

The COP range still looks intact on 1h, so patience matters more than prediction.

## Related

- [COP trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/cop)
- [CVX trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/cvx)
- [DUK trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/duk)
- [INTC trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/intc)
- [MO trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/mo)
- [NVDA trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/nvda)
- [QCOM trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/qcom)
- [SLB trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/slb)
- [TME trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/tme)
- [XOM trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/stocks/xom)
- [Latest market news](https://commonquant.ai/news)

## About CommonQuant Research

Ideas and Advanced Analysis are generated with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines and grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles. Strategies built from these ideas are automatically backtested (12-month and 5-year, walk-forward tuned) and stress-tested before they can go live, then monitored against the news hourly while they run.