# I have position with HK.09988 Alibaba and HK.00700 Tencent 300@446.633 What should I do next buy more or sell soon if sell at what price

_AI-generated trading idea · UNSPECIFIED · BABA, TME_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/i-have-position-with-hk-09988-alibaba-and-hk-00700-tencent-3--c6a09452-5395-52a5-9df5-9f54ec065c91

I have position with HK.09988 Alibaba and HK.00700 Tencent 300@446.633 What should I do next buy more or sell soon if sell at what price

## Idea

I have position with HK.09988 Alibaba and HK.00700 Tencent 300@446.633 What should I do next buy more or sell soon if sell at what price

## Advanced Analysis

### Verdict: hold your lots, add nothing until the trend gates flip

The honest verdict is hold, not buy. Both names already pass the first entry gate — RSI of 21.6 on BABA and 22.7 on TME against a 45 threshold — but the trend-quality gates are nowhere near firing: ADX reads 80.5 on BABA and 61.2 on TME against a 25 cap, and BABA's 50-day EMA ($118.04) sits $13.13 below its 200-day EMA. The strongest point for the setup is Tencent Music's fundamental engine: fiscal 2024 free cash flow up 38.8% to $10.0B, a roughly 30.7% operating margin at the 95th percentile of peers, and a dividend raised to $0.24. The strongest point against is Alibaba's leg — the one sized at 53.9% — where fiscal 2026 operating cash flow fell 51.0% to $11.0B, net margin compressed to 10.1%, the dividend was cut from $2.00 to $1.05, and the ownership filing for the period ended June 30, 2026 shows roughly $70.8 million of net open-market insider selling across six holders. The completed nine-month backtest returned 48.2% over 8 trades with a 37.5% win rate, but it also endured a 65.6% peak-to-trough drawdown, and the 60-, 24-, and 12-month runs never completed because of a gap in the daily price data — so this is one window, not a track record. What would flip the verdict: BABA's ADX cooling to 25 or below together with the 50-day EMA crossing above the 200-day EMA would turn the entry plan live. Until then, respect the built-in asymmetry — a 4.95% take-profit against a 2.475% stop on open P&L — and let the levels decide rather than averaging down into insider selling.

#### Conviction score breakdown

Composite score computed by the server from the applicable evidence-tier dimensions.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Thesis support | 55/100 |
| Trade readiness | 30/100 |
| Risk quality | 40/100 |
| Backtest evidence | 45/100 |
| Fundamentals trend | 55/100 |
| Score | 45/100 |
| Composite Score | 45/100 |
| Evidence Tier | backtested |

#### Decision scenarios

Bull, base, and bear cases synthesized from the cited evidence tier. Likelihoods are rounded evidence-weighted judgments, not statistically calibrated forecasts.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Evidence Tier | backtested |

### Trade now: patience — two of three entry gates are open, the trend filter is not

Both names are far below their entry zone today. BABA closed at $108.33 with an RSI of 21.6; TME closed at $7.87 with an RSI of 22.7. Both already clear the first entry gate — RSI at or below 45 — with plenty of room. What blocks the trade is the trend-quality gate: ADX (14) must read 25 or below, but it sits at 80.5 on BABA and 61.2 on TME, 55.5 and 36.2 points away from triggering. That reading describes a violent, low-control trend, not the calm pullback environment this strategy is designed to buy. The third gate — the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA — is also unmet: BABA's 50-day EMA sits at $118.04 versus a 200-day EMA of $131.17, about $13.13 below, the reverse of the required ordering.

"Wait" here means something concrete: do not add to either position until ADX cools to 25 or below and the 50-day EMA reclaims the 200-day EMA. The completed nine-month backtest returned 48.2% over 8 trades with a 37.5% win rate — the edge lives in the exits, not in high hit-rate entries — and its worst peak-to-trough drawdown of 65.6% is a reminder of why the hard stop (exit at a 2.475% loss on open P&L, within the 2.5% stop framework) and the 5% take-profit (a 4.95% gain) matter more than entry timing. The built-in exits are: RSI rising above 70 (currently 21.6 and 22.7, far away), a close below the 78.6% retracement, or the position-level stop versus target — roughly 2:1 reward to risk once an entry actually triggers.

One scope note that affects the plan: the parameter study could not be completed because the daily price history for BABA has an unfilled gap, so no robust parameter setup was established. Treat the published rules as fixed, not tunable. Until ADX and the EMA ordering turn, the right action on your existing HK0.1 and HK0.01 lots is to hold without adding, and let the 2.475% stop and 4.95% target do the deciding.

#### BABA price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | BABA |
| Timeframe | 1d |

#### TME price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | TME |
| Timeframe | 1d |

### Tencent Music's margin machine and Alibaba's top-line floor

Tencent Music is the earnings engine of this pair. For fiscal 2024 it grew free cash flow 38.8% to $10.0B, lifted operating margin to 30.7% (up 40.5% year over year) — the 95th percentile among 176 communication-services peers — and turned 23.4% of every revenue dollar into net income, up from 17.7%. Gross margin rose to 42.3% from 35.3%, and the dividend has been raised from $0.137 to $0.18 to $0.24 per share over three years. Its balance sheet is a fortress: $13.2B of cash, a 2.09 current ratio, and trivial interest expense of $94M against $10.3B of operating cash flow. Whatever the entry timing, the fundamental trend here is unambiguously improving. Alibaba's headline profitability fell in fiscal 2026, but the revenue line did not: sales grew 8.1% to $148.4B, gross margin held essentially flat at 39.8% (down only 0.35 points), and ROE of 9.8% still ranks at the 70th percentile of 682 information-technology peers. The share count detail is more striking than it first looks — reported shares outstanding dropped roughly 90% because of a share restructuring, but the diluted count of 19.2B against $15.0B of net income and $19.1B of cash on hand points to a company still generating and returning real capital. The last fiscal-year dividend of $1.05 per share (ex-date June 11, 2026) is tangible shareholder yield. The backtested signal design matches this fundamental picture. Entries require a pullback in an uptrend — a 14-period RSI below 45, an ADX below 25, and the 50-day moving average above the 200-day — with optional confluence at the 61.8% retracement. In the nine-month completed evaluation on daily bars, the setup traded 8 times and…

#### TME Return on equity

Return on equity trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +2363.6% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2016-12-31 | \0.003974023456431133% |
| 2017-12-31 | \0.05072491488466394% |
| 2018-12-31 | \0.0485936215900957% |
| 2019-12-31 | \0.0913512273457215% |
| 2020-12-31 | \0.07952914154464542% |
| 2021-12-31 | \0.060198342508496136% |
| 2022-12-31 | \0.07644649576914281% |
| 2023-12-31 | \0.08800329117999535% |
| 2024-12-31 | \0.09790312836155196% |
| Latest Value | \0.09790312836155196% |
| Change Pct | \2363.577012941784% |
| Ticker | TME |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### TME Operating margin

Operating margin trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +1198.5% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2016-12-31 | \0.023618436138500343% |
| 2017-12-31 | \0.1450687551224843% |
| 2018-12-31 | \0.10740057940479326% |
| 2019-12-31 | \0.1817252496658017% |
| 2020-12-31 | \0.16156141734984392% |
| 2021-12-31 | \0.12162335168352324% |
| 2022-12-31 | \0.1567804086241575% |
| 2023-12-31 | \0.2183266070913808% |
| 2024-12-31 | \0.3066793422766804% |
| Latest Value | \0.3066793422766804% |
| Change Pct | \1198.47438026078% |
| Ticker | TME |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### BABA sector percentile check

Ranks BABA against 691 companies in its sector using CommonQuant fundamentals.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Rnd Intensity | \22.937771345875543th percentile |
| Return on equity | \70.16129032258065th percentile |
| Operating margin | \63.64168618266979th percentile |
| Gross margin | \38.9686684073107th percentile |
| Ticker | BABA |
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Peer Count | 691 |

### Scores

- **Conviction score breakdown:** 45
- **Thesis support:** 55
- **Trade readiness:** 30
- **Risk quality:** 40
- **Backtest evidence:** 45
- **Fundamentals trend:** 55

### Watch items

- **BABA — ADX (14)**
- **TME — ADX (14)**
- **BABA — EMA (50) vs EMA (200)**
- **BABA — Insider net open-market activity**
- **BABA — Annual dividend per share**
- **TME — Free cash flow**
- **BABA — RSI (14)**
- **BABA — Open position P&L**

## Key details

- Symbols: BABA, TME
- Timeframes: 1d
- Tags: \#canonical-demand, \#cluster-version:1, \#direction:unspecified, \#entity-kind:company, \#entity:Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, \#entity:Tencent Music Entertainment Group, \#exchange:NYSE, \#horizon:unspecified, \#intent:exit, \#symbol:BABA, \#symbol:TME

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## About CommonQuant Research

Ideas and Advanced Analysis are generated with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines and grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles. Strategies built from these ideas are automatically backtested (over a timeframe-dependent historical window with walk-forward tuning) and stress-tested before they can go live, then monitored against the news hourly while they run.