# Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — buy the crypto relief rally

_AI-generated trading idea · LONG · BTC, ETH_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/weak-jobs-report-kills-rate-hike-fears-buy-the-crypto-relief--c1ecc6e2-6cfa-4c0e-ae20-4c6f3367ea8d

The June jobs report was shockingly weak, which paradoxically helped crypto because investors no longer fear the Federal Reserve will aggressively raise interest rates. Bitcoin and Ethereum are rallying as bond yields fall.

## Idea

The June jobs report showed only 57,000 new positions — half the expected 115,000 — which immediately scaled back expectations for Fed rate hikes. When the Fed is less likely to hike, bond yields fall, and lower yields make risk assets like crypto more attractive because they don't pay interest. Simultaneously, we saw a crypto-specific catalyst: a short squeeze that forced bearish traders to cover positions, pushing bitcoin toward $62,000. Connecting the weak jobs data with the bond rally and the crypto short squeeze, the macro backdrop is now aligned with a technical breakout in digital assets.

## What happened since

- **ETH** · LONG · T+1 0.2920% · T+5 -2.0268%
- **BTC** · LONG · T+1 0.8047% · T+5 0.1552%

_Price changes since publication; updated 2026-07-12T03:12:14.194165+00:00._

## Key details

- Symbols: BTC, ETH
- Timeframes: H4, D1
- Tags: \#crypto, \#macro, \#rates, \#risk\_on

## Community

- Upvotes: 0
- Views: 5
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [Ether and solana extend gains as a short squeeze lifts bitcoin toward $62,000](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/03/ether-and-solana-extend-gains-as-a-short-squeeze-lifts-bitcoin-toward-usd62-000) — CoinDesk
- [U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html) — CNBC
- [Bonds Rally as Weak Jobs Report Dims Fed Rate-Hike Expectations](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-02/bonds-rally-as-weak-jobs-report-dims-fed-rate-hike-expectations) — Bloomberg

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