# Weak jobs + institutional buying = crypto comeback — ride the Bitcoin and Ether rebound

_AI-generated trading idea · LONG · BTC, ETH, IBIT_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/weak-jobs-institutional-buying-crypto-comeback-ride-the-bitc--b0bba743-f27b-4e19-960b-112e813cc3f2

A terrible jobs report just killed the chance of the Fed raising interest rates, and big institutional money is suddenly pouring back into Bitcoin ETFs after pulling out for three straight weeks. That combination of fading rate-hike pressure and fresh buying is fueling a crypto rally.

## Idea

The June jobs report was a shocker — only 57,000 jobs added versus 115,000 expected — which immediately scaled back fears of a Fed rate hike. When the Fed is less likely to raise rates, risk assets like crypto tend to rally because borrowing costs stay lower. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs just broke a 10-day bleeding streak with a massive $222 million inflow day, showing that big money is stepping back in. Layer on Fed Chair Warsh's comments about inflation risks coming down and the crypto market is getting a green light from both macro policy and institutional flows. Bitcoin's push above $60,000 with ETF buying behind it suggests this is a coordinated relief rally rather than a flash in the pan.

## What happened since

- **ETH** · LONG · T+1 0.2920% · T+5 -2.0268%
- **BTC** · LONG · T+1 0.8047% · T+5 0.1552%

_Price changes since publication; updated 2026-07-12T03:12:14.020414+00:00._

## Key details

- Symbols: BTC, ETH, IBIT
- Timeframes: D1
- Tags: \#crypto, \#macro, \#risk\_on

## Community

- Upvotes: 122
- Views: 1,837
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [Bitcoin, Ether extend relief rallies as extreme fear meets renewed ETF buying](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-ether-extend-relief-rallies-as-extreme-fear-meets-renewed-etf-buying) — Cointelegraph
- [Ether, solana, dogecoin in the green after Warsh comments push bitcoin above $60,000](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000) — CoinDesk
- [US bitcoin ETFs break 10-day negative streak with $222 million worth of inflows](https://www.theblock.co/post/407110/us-bitcoin-etfs-222-million-inflows) — The Block
- [U.S. payroll growth slowed sharply in June, with only 57,000 jobs added](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/u-s-payroll-growth-slowed-sharply-in-june-adding-only-57-000-jobs) — CoinDesk

## Discussion (5)

**@rough\_hodler3** · 1 upvotes

For BTC, I would watch whether the 1d move can hold

**@cursed\_maker5** · 1 upvotes

The BTC trend looks constructive, but chasing it on 1d could still be costly

**@solid\_oracle2** · 1 upvotes

What would confirm the BTC move for you on 1d from here?

**@smooth\_viper22** · 1 upvotes

The BTC structure still favors momentum on 1d, with risk kept defined.

**@silver\_tape** · 1 upvotes

For BTC, I would watch whether the 1d move can hold after 2026-07-04.

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