# Snow _AI-generated trading idea · UNSPECIFIED · SNOW_ > Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/snow--770f1d0e-23c5-5060-a23b-bef576496374 Snow ## Idea Snow ## Advanced Analysis ### Verdict: Wait — Snowflake's margins are improving, but the entry never fired and cash quality just cracked Snowflake's case rests on real strength: fiscal 2026 revenue of $4.68B grew 29.2% year over year (roughly the 75th percentile among IT peers), and free cash flow of $1.12B ranks in the top 2.5% of 791 sector peers, while the July 2026 quarter's net loss narrowed 35% sequentially to $192M. But the newest filing cuts the other way too: free cash flow fell 64% sequentially to $84M, operating cash flow dropped 62% to $91M, shares outstanding rose 1.7% to 352.5M, and the ownership filing for the period ended June 30, 2026 shows 9 holders with net open-market insider selling of roughly $377.5M — adverse facts a bull must explain, not wave away. This is also a watch-list setup, not an active signal: the entry rules did not open an entry across 1,236 evaluated daily bars over 60 months, and the parameter-sensitivity review ran out of time, so no robust nearby-parameter setup was established. Today, price at $332.91 sits $7.79 above its 21-day EMA, but ADX (14) at 15.5 still needs to clear 20, while RSI (14) at 52.8 is already well past its 40 threshold. Wait for confirmation; the single fact that would flip this constructive is ADX closing above 20 alongside a next filing that extends the margin-and-cash recovery. If the next quarterly filing instead repeats the cash contraction, the value framing fails. #### Conviction score breakdown Composite score computed by the server from the applicable evidence-tier dimensions. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Thesis support | 60/100 | | Trade readiness | 30/100 | | Risk quality | 45/100 | | Trigger proximity | 40/100 | | Fundamentals trend | 62/100 | | Score | 47/100 | | Composite Score | 47/100 | | Evidence Tier | rules\_not\_triggered | #### Decision scenarios Bull, base, and bear cases synthesized from the cited evidence tier. Likelihoods are rounded evidence-weighted judgments, not statistically calibrated forecasts. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Evidence Tier | rules\_not\_triggered | ### Trade now \*\*Snowflake (SNOW) closed at $332.91\*\*, just above its 21-day EMA of $325.12 and within 2.1% of the nearest resistance at $340. This is a \*\*watch-list setup, not an active signal\*\*: the rules were checked against real daily bars but did not open an entry, and the entry rule sits in a disabled posture until its conditions are met. There is nothing to execute today. Reading the live distance to each entry condition: price above the 21-day EMA is satisfied (price sits $7.79 above it), and the matching EMA-below-price check is satisfied with it. RSI (14) at 52.8 is well clear of the 40 level it must cross above, though the system currently tags that check as out of range. The widest gap is trend strength: \*\*ADX (14) reads 15.5 and needs to be above 20\*\*, a shortfall of about 4.5 points. Until everything lines up, "wait" means concretely: no position, no scaling in — just monitoring the daily bar. If the setup ever activates, the plan's exit framework defines the risk map: a fixed stop at a \*\*2.4% loss\*\*, a first target at \*\*+4.7%\*\*, plus a take-profit at top-ranked resistance ($340) and a stop below second-ranked support ($320). The percentage targets alone imply roughly \*\*2-to-1 reward-to-risk\*\*. Note that the parameter-sensitivity review ran out of time and produced no robust nearby-parameter recommendation, so treat the published thresholds as the plan of record — do not tune them on the fly. #### SNOW price and trigger map Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Ticker | SNOW | | Timeframe | 1d | ### Snowflake's cash machine is real, even if GAAP profits are not The strongest argument for a constructive view on Snowflake is that the demand engine has not stalled. Full-year revenue for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 reached $4.68B, up 29.2% year over year — placing the company around the 75th percentile of revenue growth among 788 Information Technology peers. The July 2026 quarter added to that, with revenue of $1.55B, up 11.2% from the prior quarter's $1.39B. If you believe the thesis is about durable enterprise data-platform demand, the top… #### SNOW Revenue Revenue trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +136.8% from first to latest point. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | 2019-01-31 | $96666000 | | 2019-10-31 | $73012000 | | 2020-01-31 | $264748000 | | 2020-04-30 | $108815000 | | 2020-07-31 | $133145000 | | 2020-10-31 | $159624000 | | 2021-01-31 | $592049000 | | 2021-04-30 | $228914000 | | Latest Value | $228914000 | | Change Pct | $136.8092193739267 | | Ticker | SNOW | | Timeframe | reported periods | #### SNOW Free cash flow Free cash flow trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +110.6% from first to latest point. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | 2019-01-31 | $-146040000 | | 2020-01-31 | $-195141000 | | 2020-04-30 | $-8625000 | | 2020-07-31 | $-43400000 | | 2020-10-31 | $-37024000 | | 2021-01-31 | $-80454000 | | 2021-04-30 | $15424000 | | Latest Value | $15424000 | | Change Pct | $110.56149000273898 | | Ticker | SNOW | | Timeframe | reported periods | #### SNOW sector percentile check Ranks SNOW against 791 companies in its sector using CommonQuant fundamentals. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Free cash flow | \97.53476611883691th percentile | | Return on equity | \10.92375366568915th percentile | | Rnd Intensity | \86.03473227206948th percentile | | Operating margin | \23.711943793911008th percentile | | Ticker | SNOW | | Sector | Information Technology | | Peer Count | 791 | ### Scores - **Conviction score breakdown:** 47 - **Thesis support:** 60 - **Trade readiness:** 30 - **Risk quality:** 45 - **Trigger proximity:** 40 - **Fundamentals trend:** 62 ### Watch items - **SNOW — ADX (14)** - **SNOW — Price vs EMA (21)** - **SNOW — RSI (14)** - **SNOW — Free cash flow** - **SNOW — Insider net open-market activity** - **SNOW — Shares outstanding** ## Key details - Symbols: SNOW - Timeframes: 1d - Tags: \#canonical-demand, \#cluster-version:1, \#direction:unspecified, \#entity-kind:company, \#entity:Snowflake Inc., \#exchange:NYSE, \#horizon:unspecified, \#intent:research, \#symbol:SNOW ## Community - Upvotes: 0 - Views: 0 - Copies: 0 - Cosigns: 0 ## Related - [SNOW trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/markets/snow) - [Latest market news](https://commonquant.ai/news) ## About CommonQuant Research Ideas and Advanced Analysis are generated with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines and grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles. Strategies built from these ideas are automatically backtested (over a timeframe-dependent historical window with walk-forward tuning) and stress-tested before they can go live, then monitored against the news hourly while they run.