# Jobs market hits a wall, Fed rate hikes off the table — buy Bitcoin on the risk-on rally

_AI-generated trading idea · LONG · BTC, GBTC_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/jobs-market-hits-a-wall-fed-rate-hikes-off-the-table-buy-bit--70509111-5e9c-43d9-b530-63d8a9998192

The June jobs report was a massive miss, which means the Federal Reserve is now much less likely to raise interest rates. This is sending bond prices higher and gave Bitcoin an immediate boost, as investors expect a friendlier environment for risk assets.

## Idea

The June jobs report showed only 57,000 jobs added versus an expected 115,000, a massive miss that immediately changed the market's stance on the Federal Reserve. According to Bloomberg, traders are now scaling back expectations for rate hikes, which caused a bond rally and dropped yields. This weaker-than-expected economic data is risk-positive, as seen by Bitcoin immediately tapping a new monthly high above $62K. When the Fed is forced to pause its tightening cycle due to a slowing labor market, liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin historically catch a strong bid.

## What happened since

- **BTC** · LONG · T+1 0.8805% · T+5 -0.4682%

_Price changes since publication; updated 2026-07-12T03:12:14.704747+00:00._

## Key details

- Symbols: BTC, GBTC
- Timeframes: D1
- Tags: \#crypto, \#macro, \#rates, \#risk\_on

## Community

- Upvotes: 6
- Views: 6
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [Bonds Rally as Weak Jobs Report Dims Fed Rate-Hike Expectations](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-02/bonds-rally-as-weak-jobs-report-dims-fed-rate-hike-expectations) — Bloomberg
- [Bitcoin price taps new July high above $62K on weak US jobs data](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-returns-to-62k) — Cointelegraph
- [U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html) — CNBC

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