# The big crypto hoarders are still buying — Strategy adds Bitcoin, Bitmine adds Ethereum — long the treasury stocks

_AI-generated trading idea · BULLISH · BMNR, MSTR_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/the-big-crypto-hoarders-are-still-buying-strategy-adds-bitco--d886f018-ec3b-5e7f-8e5e-7e16d4a6a4f8

When the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum keep buying even while crypto prices are under pressure, it signals that the biggest long-term believers see current prices as attractive — and their standing bids put a floor under the coins themselves. These treasury companies' stocks tend to move with amplified force compared to the coins, so any recovery in Bitcoin or Ethereum gets magnified in MSTR and BMNR. Bitmine also stakes 84% of its holdings, meaning it earns ongoing yield on its stockpile rather than just sitting on it. Accumulation by these two at this scale is a vote of confidence that small traders can piggyback on.

## Idea

When the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum keep buying even while crypto prices are under pressure, it signals that the biggest long-term believers see current prices as attractive — and their standing bids put a floor under the coins themselves. These treasury companies' stocks tend to move with amplified force compared to the coins, so any recovery in Bitcoin or Ethereum gets magnified in MSTR and BMNR. Bitmine also stakes 84% of its holdings, meaning it earns ongoing yield on its stockpile rather than just sitting on it. Accumulation by these two at this scale is a vote of confidence that small traders can piggyback on.

## Advanced Analysis

### Verdict: the whales are still buying — but the entry and the insiders both say wait

The strongest argument for this idea is that the accumulation thesis is happening right now: per Cointelegraph's October 12, 2026 report, Strategy added 250 Bitcoin to reach 848,250 BTC, and per The Block the same day, Bitmine added 12,532 ETH toward roughly 6 million Ether while staking about 84% of its stack. The strongest argument against is that the people closest to the thesis disagree with it at the margin — the ownership filing for the period ended September 30, 2026 shows about $14.2M of net open-market insider selling at MSTR — while BMNR's share count grew 17.4% in a single quarter and MSTR's free cash flow swung from +$13.0M to -$5.9M. This is a watch-list setup, not an active signal: no entry conditions fired across the last 12 months of evaluated bars, and no robust parameter setup was established because the evaluation could not be completed. Today the entries remain unmet — BMNR closed at $24.08 with RSI at 31.6 (below the 40 floor) and MSTR at $154.06 with RSI at 48.8 (above the 45 ceiling) — so the action is to set alerts near BMNR's $23.45 and MSTR's $138.48 EMA levels, not to place orders. The verdict would flip constructive once the price-and-momentum entry confirms together with either an ownership-filing reversal at MSTR or continued coin purchases into the next quarterly reports.

#### Conviction score breakdown

Composite score computed by the server from the applicable evidence-tier dimensions.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Thesis support | 65/100 |
| Trade readiness | 40/100 |
| Risk quality | 35/100 |
| Trigger proximity | 50/100 |
| Fundamentals trend | 40/100 |
| Score | 46/100 |
| Composite Score | 46/100 |
| Evidence Tier | rules\_not\_triggered |

#### Decision scenarios

Bull, base, and bear cases synthesized from the cited evidence tier. Likelihoods are rounded evidence-weighted judgments, not statistically calibrated forecasts.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Evidence Tier | rules\_not\_triggered |

### Trade now: alerts set, entries not armed

This is a watch-list setup, not an active signal: the entry rules have not fired on live bars, and today's action is to place alerts, not orders. The entry looks for a pullback to the 50-day EMA with the 14-day RSI between 40 and 45. For BMNR, the last close is $24.08 versus the 50-day EMA at roughly $23.45 — only $0.63 away — but RSI (14) sits at 31.6, below the 40 floor, so the momentum condition is not met. For MSTR, price is $154.06 versus a 50-day EMA of about $138.48, a $15.58 gap, and RSI (14) is 48.8, just above the 45 ceiling — also not there yet.

If an entry triggers, the plan is already defined: take profit at a 15% gain (or earlier at the nearest resistance level — about $23.85 for BMNR and $149.82 for MSTR) or hold at least 40 bars; the stop is a 2% loss, with a structural stop at the second-ranked support level. Position size is capped at 25% of capital per name, with risk per position around 2%. At a 2% stop against a 15% target, the effective reward-to-risk is roughly 7.5-to-1 on any filled entry.

What waiting means concretely: set a BMNR alert near $23.45 and watch its RSI climb back above 40, and set a MSTR alert near $138.48 while watching RSI dip below 45. One caveat that materially shapes the plan: the strategy could not be evaluated historically because market data for BMNR failed to load, so no robust parameter setup was established — treat the published thresholds as the plan of record and nothing else.

#### BMNR price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | BMNR |
| Timeframe | 1d |

#### MSTR price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | MSTR |
| Timeframe | 1d |

### The Whales Are Still Buying — and That Is the Trade

The thesis rests on the two largest corporate accumulators continuing to buy into weakness, and the cited news confirms it is happening right now. Per Cointelegraph's October 12, 2026 report, Strategy added 250 Bitcoin, lifting holdings to 848,250 BTC. The same day, per The Block, Bitmine added 12,532 ETH, taking its treasury toward 6 million Ether, with Tom Lee flagging the potential for the largest-ever crypto bull market. That is the idea's core signal — standing bids from the biggest believers — arriving in real time. The amplification argument also has support in the numbers. Both stocks are effectively levered claims on their coin stacks: MSTR's recent quarters show operating and net margins swinging from triple-digit negative to positive and back again (net margin was +87.5% in Q2 2025 and -101% by Q4 2025), which is exactly the torque the thesis says magnifies coin moves in both directions. BMNR's gross margin climbed to 87.7% in the quarter ended May 31, 2026, up 0.6 points sequentially, and its revenue jumped from $11.0M to $46.5M quarter over quarter — a business scaling fast rather than stagnating. BMNR's staking claim is real in the cash flows. Its free cash flow and operating cash flow both turned positive at roughly $29.0M in Q2 2026 (period ended May 31), after $88.2M of negative operating cash flow the prior quarter. If ~84% of the Ether stack is staked, that yield-generating profile gives BMNR a recurring income stream MSTR lacks, softening the downside between coin recoveries. Balance sheets are not the constraint. BMNR reports $512.0M of cash against just $10.0M of current liabilities — a current ratio above 51 — and…

#### BMNR Revenue

Revenue trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +10781.1% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2022-08-31 | $427669 |
| 2023-08-31 | $645278 |
| 2024-08-31 | $3310000 |
| 2025-05-31 | $2052000 |
| 2025-08-31 | $6095000 |
| 2025-08-31 | $1324891 |
| 2025-11-30 | $2293000 |
| 2026-02-28 | $11041000 |
| 2026-05-31 | $46535000 |
| Latest Value | $46535000 |
| Change Pct | $10781.07859115344 |
| Ticker | BMNR |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### BMNR Free cash flow

Free cash flow trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +759.1% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2022-08-31 | $-4396549 |
| 2023-08-31 | $-1422003 |
| 2024-08-31 | $-106000 |
| 2025-08-31 | $-5214000 |
| 2025-08-31 | $-6561868 |
| 2025-11-30 | $-228732000 |
| 2026-05-31 | $28977000 |
| Latest Value | $28977000 |
| Change Pct | $759.085114256659 |
| Ticker | BMNR |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### MSTR sector percentile check

Ranks MSTR against 262 companies in its sector using CommonQuant fundamentals.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Operating margin | \3.6259541984732824th percentile |
| Free cash flow | \11.24078624078624th percentile |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | \29.89130434782609th percentile |
| Gross margin | \63.60544217687075th percentile |
| Ticker | MSTR |
| Sector | Financials |
| Peer Count | 262 |

### Scores

- **Conviction score breakdown:** 46
- **Thesis support:** 65
- **Trade readiness:** 40
- **Risk quality:** 35
- **Trigger proximity:** 50
- **Fundamentals trend:** 40

### Watch items

- **BMNR — BMNR price vs EMA (50)**
- **BMNR — BMNR RSI (14)**
- **MSTR — MSTR price vs EMA (50)**
- **MSTR — MSTR RSI (14)**
- **MSTR — MSTR insider net open-market activity**
- **BMNR — BMNR shares outstanding**
- **MSTR — MSTR free cash flow**

## Key details

- Symbols: BMNR, MSTR
- Timeframes: 1d
- Tags: \#canonical-demand, \#cluster-version:1, \#direction:bullish, \#entity-kind:instrument, \#entity:BMNR, \#entity:MSTR, \#horizon:unspecified, \#intent:research, \#symbol:BMNR, \#symbol:MSTR

## Community

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- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [Strategy adds 250 Bitcoin as holdings reach 848,250 BTC](https://cointelegraph.com/news/michael-saylor-strategy-250-btc-buy) — Cointelegraph
- [Bitmine adds 12,532 ETH as Tom Lee flags potential ‘largest-ever’ crypto bull market](https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-12-bitmine-eth-holdings-6-million-ether-treasury-418296) — The Block

## Related

- [BMNR trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/markets/bmnr)
- [MSTR trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/markets/mstr)
- [Latest market news](https://commonquant.ai/news)

## About CommonQuant Research

Ideas and Advanced Analysis are generated with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines and grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles. Strategies built from these ideas are automatically backtested (over a timeframe-dependent historical window with walk-forward tuning) and stress-tested before they can go live, then monitored against the news hourly while they run.