# Oil prices crashing on Iran deal flood of supply — short oil producers and energy funds

_AI-generated trading idea · SHORT · USO, USOIL, XLE_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/oil-prices-crashing-on-iran-deal-flood-of-supply-short-oil-p--40320b64-67b3-4aa8-a419-1af0afc91aec

A new deal between the US and Iran will allow more oil to flow into the global market, causing oil prices to drop to a three-month low. Major companies like BMW are already blaming geopolitical disruptions for lower profits.

## Idea

The US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to flood the market with new oil supply, and Wall Street banks are already slashing their price forecasts. Oil has plunged 15% in just four days, and this kind of fundamental shift usually means lower prices are here to stay for a while. With Iran gaining the right to sell oil immediately and tap a massive development fund, the increased supply will likely keep pressure on oil-related investments. Betting against oil producers or the commodity itself is a way to profit as prices adjust to this new reality.

## Key details

- Symbols: USO, USOIL, XLE
- Timeframes: H4
- Tags: \#macro, \#commodities, \#geopolitics

## Community

- Upvotes: 16
- Views: 0
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [BMW stock slumps to 5 year-low as Iran war and China slowdown spark profit warning](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/bmw-profit-warning-autos-cars-china-iran.html) — CNBC
- [Oil Falls Below $80 With US-Iran Deal Set to Add Wave of Supply](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-16/oil-falls-with-us-iran-deal-set-to-add-wave-of-supply-video) — Bloomberg

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