# ASTS _AI-generated trading idea · UNSPECIFIED · ASTS_ > Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/asts--38d95f6f-5901-574d-88f8-bc0d08b75f9d ASTS ## Idea ASTS ## Advanced Analysis ### Verdict: ASTS is a wait-and-watch, and the fundamentals say the watch should be patient This idea is, by its own mandate, an avoid posture — and the evidence largely agrees. The strongest point for the bull case is real: revenue more than doubled sequentially to $31.5M in the June 2026 quarter from $14.7M, putting FY2025 growth in the 96th percentile of Communication Services peers, backed by $2.3B of cash. The strongest point against it is that the burn doubled even faster: free cash flow went from negative $309.7M to negative $694.8M in one quarter, net income worsened 21% to negative $230.9M, debt-to-equity climbed 11% to 1.24, and the most recent ownership filing (for the period ended June 30, 2026, and flagged as past its reporting deadline) showed net open-market insider selling of about $9.1M. On the technical side, the compiled entry never fired across 1,237 daily bars because its conditions — RSI at or below 30 (now 49.6) and ADX below 20 (now 21.7), with price at the 78.6% retracement — are nowhere near being met, and no robust parameter setup was established. What would flip this verdict: a September 2026 SEC filing showing the burn decelerating sharply while revenue keeps compounding, plus a Form 4 cluster showing insiders back on the buy side. Until then, the honest action is to wait — the setup is on the watch list, not in the tradeable zone. #### Conviction score breakdown Composite score computed by the server from the applicable evidence-tier dimensions. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Thesis support | 45/100 | | Trade readiness | 20/100 | | Risk quality | 35/100 | | Trigger proximity | 15/100 | | Fundamentals trend | 40/100 | | Score | 31/100 | | Composite Score | 31/100 | | Evidence Tier | rules\_not\_triggered | #### Decision scenarios Bull, base, and bear cases synthesized from the cited evidence tier. Likelihoods are rounded evidence-weighted judgments, not statistically calibrated forecasts. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Evidence Tier | rules\_not\_triggered | ### Trade now: ASTS stays on the avoid list — no entry, and none is intended yet There is nothing to do in ASTS today, by design. The last close is $62.31, and the strategy's entry rule needs three things at once: the 14-day RSI at or below 30, the 14-day ADX below 20, and a daily low touching the 78.6% retracement while the close holds above it. Right now RSI is 49.6 — nearly 20 points away from its threshold — and ADX is 21.7, about 1.7 points above its own. The closest live condition is actually an exit one: RSI above 50 is only 0.4 points away, which is irrelevant without a position. This is a watch-list setup built on real daily bars, and the lack of entries is the intended outcome, not a data problem. The mandate behind this idea is explicitly an 'avoid' posture, and the numbers support that caution rather than a loosened trigger. Free cash flow was negative $694.8M in the June 2026 quarter, more than double the prior quarter's $309.7M outflow, while revenue of $31.5M more than doubled from $14.7M — a company scaling spend far faster than sales. Debt-to-equity rose about 11% in a single quarter to 1.24, and the ownership filing shows net open-market insider selling of roughly $9.1M across four reporters. No robust parameter setup was established, because the research author deliberately kept the strict entry rule rather than relaxing it to manufacture signals. If you insist on a concrete plan, 'wait' means this: no position until all four entry conditions are true on the same daily bar, position sizing capped at 25% of capital and 2.6% risk per trade, a 2.6% stop and 5.2% take-profit on any filled entry, and the structural exit at RSI back above 50. With price sitting between the nearest support at $62 and resistance at $63, the market is nowhere near the deep-oversold regime this rule requires. Price is already 69% above its range low, so the setup arms only after a genuine capitulation — and even then, the fundamental picture argues for passing. #### ASTS price and trigger map Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Ticker | ASTS | | Timeframe | 1d | ### The revenue curve finally went vertical The bull case rests on the revenue inflection now visible in the quarterly series. After years of token revenue — quarterly figures under $2M as recently as mid-2025 — AST SpaceMobile reported $31.5M for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, up 113.9% from $14.7M the prior quarter and following $53.1M in Q4 2025 and $70.9M for full-year 2025. Year-over-year revenue growth of 4.1x for FY2025 puts the company in the 96th percentile of its Communication Services peer group. For a… #### ASTS Free cash flow Free cash flow trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +266.4% from first to latest point. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | 2020-06-30 | $-10658000 | | 2020-09-30 | $-16771000 | | 2020-09-30 | $-6113000 | | 2020-12-31 | $-30930000 | | 2021-03-31 | $-11255000 | | 2021-06-30 | $-34115000 | | 2021-09-30 | $-24535000 | | 2021-12-31 | $-95175000 | | 2021-12-31 | $-25270000 | | 2022-03-31 | $-52168000 | | 2022-03-31 | $17737000 | | Latest Value | $17737000 | | Change Pct | $266.41959091762055 | | Ticker | ASTS | | Timeframe | reported periods | #### ASTS Gross margin Gross margin trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +132.0% from first to latest point. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | 2020-06-30 | \-0.5327659574468085% | | 2020-06-30 | \-0.9203980099502488% | | 2020-09-30 | \0.19326186830015316% | | 2020-09-30 | \0.6014354066985645% | | 2020-12-31 | \0.4930450812803754% | | 2021-03-31 | \0.05783385909568874% | | 2021-06-30 | \0.5989902632527948% | | 2021-09-30 | \0.1416326530612245% | | 2021-12-31 | \0.3903264812575574% | | 2021-12-31 | \0.4459958273150378% | | 2022-03-31 | \0.17042606516290726% | | Latest Value | \0.17042606516290726% | | Change Pct | \131.9889179818556% | | Ticker | ASTS | | Timeframe | reported periods | #### ASTS sector percentile check Ranks ASTS against 142 companies in its sector using CommonQuant fundamentals. | Measure | Value | | --- | ---: | | Free cash flow | \0.35211267605633806th percentile | | Revenue growth (YoY) | \96.4968152866242th percentile | | Rnd Intensity | \86.45833333333334th percentile | | Return on equity | 25th percentile | | Ticker | ASTS | | Sector | Communication Services | | Peer Count | 142 | ### Scores - **Conviction score breakdown:** 31 - **Thesis support:** 45 - **Trade readiness:** 20 - **Risk quality:** 35 - **Trigger proximity:** 15 - **Fundamentals trend:** 40 ### Watch items - **ASTS — RSI (14)** - **ASTS — ADX (14)** - **ASTS — Price vs 78.6% retracement** - **ASTS — Quarterly free cash flow** - **ASTS — Insider open-market net activity** - **ASTS — Debt-to-equity** - **ASTS — Quarterly revenue** ## Key details - Symbols: ASTS - Timeframes: 1d - Tags: \#canonical-demand, \#cluster-version:1, \#direction:unspecified, \#entity-kind:company, \#entity:AST SpaceMobile, Inc., \#exchange:NASDAQ, \#horizon:unspecified, \#intent:research, \#symbol:ASTS ## Community - Upvotes: 0 - Views: 0 - Copies: 0 - Cosigns: 0 ## Related - [ASTS trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/markets/asts) - [Latest market news](https://commonquant.ai/news) ## About CommonQuant Research Ideas and Advanced Analysis are generated with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines and grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles. Strategies built from these ideas are automatically backtested (over a timeframe-dependent historical window with walk-forward tuning) and stress-tested before they can go live, then monitored against the news hourly while they run.