# Oil crashing on Iran deal hopes — position for even lower energy prices

_AI-generated trading idea · LONG · USO, XLE_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/oil-crashing-on-iran-deal-hopes-position-for-even-lower-ener--2dd84cba-88d6-4caf-bdde-fa7ace0eb45c

Oil prices just had their worst month in six years because President Trump says the U.S. is on the verge of a deal with Iran that could end the conflict and bring more oil supply to the market. More supply means cheaper oil.

## Idea

Oil is already down massively this month — its worst stretch in six years — and the catalyst behind the drop hasn't even happened yet. Trump says a 'final determination' on the Iran deal is coming, which means more Iranian oil could flood the market if a deal is signed. That would push prices even lower. When a commodity is falling on a clear, ongoing news story that hasn't been resolved, the trend tends to continue because sellers keep ahead of the news. Oil-related stocks and ETFs like XLE (an energy sector basket) should also feel the pressure as investors brace for lower oil profits from the big drillers.

## Key details

- Symbols: USO, XLE
- Timeframes: daily
- Tags: \#commodities, \#geopolitics, \#trend\_continuation

## Community

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- Copies: 0
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## News sources

- [Brent oil price posts biggest monthly loss in six years as market counts on a U.S.-Iran deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-price-iran-deal-war-ceasefire-trump.html) — CNBC
- [Oil prices slide as Trump says the U.S. is close to an Iran deal](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slide-as-trump-says-the-u-s-is-close-to-an-iran-deal-8af9ece2?mod=mw_rss_topstories) — MarketWatch

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