# The macro backdrop is genuinely bad for bitcoin — yields at a 2007 high and a top Fed official openly calling for another hike this year. Yet despite that, ETF inflows just flipped positive for 2026 with the biggest weekly haul since October, showing inst

_AI-generated trading idea · BULLISH · CLSK, MARA, RIOT_

> Canonical page: https://commonquant.ai/research/for-you/the-macro-backdrop-is-genuinely-bad-for-bitcoin-yields-at-a--10a3798b-a9c1-5a88-a5fc-f660a4540e40

The macro backdrop is genuinely bad for bitcoin — yields at a 2007 high and a top Fed official openly calling for another hike this year. Yet despite that, ETF inflows just flipped positive for 2026 with the biggest weekly haul since October, showing institutional demand is absorbing the selling. On top of that, JPMorgan points out bitcoin is back above its roughly $85,000 production cost, which removes the pressure miners feel to sell their holdings. When the usual sellers step back and institutions keep buying into macro headwinds, bitcoin miners tend to amplify any upside move in the coin.

## Idea

The macro backdrop is genuinely bad for bitcoin — yields at a 2007 high and a top Fed official openly calling for another hike this year. Yet despite that, ETF inflows just flipped positive for 2026 with the biggest weekly haul since October, showing institutional demand is absorbing the selling. On top of that, JPMorgan points out bitcoin is back above its roughly $85,000 production cost, which removes the pressure miners feel to sell their holdings. When the usual sellers step back and institutions keep buying into macro headwinds, bitcoin miners tend to amplify any upside move in the coin.

## Advanced Analysis

### Verdict: the miner relief case is real, but the entries aren't live yet

The idea's demand-side argument is its strongest asset: per The Block on 2026-09-26, bitcoin ETFs took in $2.4B for the week — the biggest haul since October — turning 2026 flows positive, and JPMorgan (2026-09-24) flagged bitcoin moving back above its roughly $85,000 production cost, easing the forced miner selling that drove MARA's $1.71B Q4 2025 loss and RIOT's $690.7M loss. The against-case is concrete too: insiders at both MARA (net -$2.09M) and RIOT (net -$3.20M) were net open-market sellers in ownership filings for the period ended 2026-06-30, MARA's revenue fell 20.7% quarter over quarter to $13.8M, and all three names still burn cash — CLSK's free cash flow loss narrowed to -$118.4M but its ROE remains -31.5%. The nine-month completed backtest on CLSK returned 2.6% over 11 trades (54.5% win rate) with a 10.2% peak drawdown — modest, not a mandate. Most importantly, the entry is not triggered: RSI sits above 50 on all three names, so the required fresh cross upward can only print after RSI first dips back below 50 and turns, with ADX near or above 20 (CLSK 21.3 clears; MARA 19.4 and RIOT 19.8 need about a point). Verdict: wait — the thesis is credible but the discipline is the edge, so set alerts at RSI 50 and act only on the trigger.

#### Conviction score breakdown

Composite score computed by the server from the applicable evidence-tier dimensions.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Thesis support | 72/100 |
| Trade readiness | 40/100 |
| Risk quality | 55/100 |
| Backtest evidence | 55/100 |
| Fundamentals trend | 60/100 |
| Score | 56/100 |
| Composite Score | 56/100 |
| Evidence Tier | backtested |

#### Decision scenarios

Bull, base, and bear cases synthesized from the cited evidence tier. Likelihoods are rounded evidence-weighted judgments, not statistically calibrated forecasts.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Evidence Tier | backtested |

### Trade now: miners are close, but no entry has fired yet

Do nothing today. All three entry sets share the same four conditions: RSI (14) above 20, above 45, a fresh daily cross above 50, and ADX (14) above 20. The first two are already met everywhere, and the ADX hurdle is met or nearly met — CLSK's ADX is 21.3 (cleared), MARA's is 19.4 and RIOT's is 19.8, both within a point of the trigger. The missing piece is the RSI cross above 50 itself: RSI sits at 53.1 on CLSK, 53.5 on MARA, and 53.8 on RIOT. Because the readings are already above 50, a fresh upward cross cannot print until RSI first dips back below 50 and then turns up. In practice that means watching for a one-to-three day pullback — CLSK trades at $13.95 just under its nearest resistance at $14.03, MARA at $12.55 below resistance at $12.87, RIOT at $23.00 right on its first resistance — followed by a resumed upturn. "Wait" here means set alerts at RSI 50 on all three names and re-check daily; chasing before the cross defeats the entry discipline.

Once an entry triggers, the risk plan is mechanical: a hard 2% stop on the position, a 4% profit target, an exit at the second-listed resistance level (roughly $15.02 for CLSK, $13.00 for MARA, $22.87 for RIOT per the live level map), or a 60-trading-day time stop, whichever comes first. Position sizing is capped at 25% per name under the fixed-risk method. On the backtest side, the completed nine-month window on CLSK traded 11 times, won 54.5% of them, returned 2.6% with a 10.2% peak drawdown — modest numbers, but the plan is defined by its rules, not its headline return, and those exits keep any single loss small.

#### CLSK price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | CLSK |
| Timeframe | 1d |

#### MARA price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | MARA |
| Timeframe | 1d |

#### RIOT price and trigger map

Uses the idea timeframe and keeps price levels on the price axis.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Ticker | RIOT |
| Timeframe | 1d |

### ETF Flows Flip Positive While Miners' Forced-Seller Problem Fades

The demand side of the thesis is backed by current reporting: per The Block on 2026-09-26, bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.4B for the week, their largest haul since October and enough to turn the flows positive for 2026. Institutions absorbing supply into a hostile macro tape — per CoinDesk, bitcoin slid to $83,300 as bond yields hit their highest level since 2007, and per CNBC, New York Fed President Williams called another hike by year-end 'reasonable' — is precisely the backdrop where the miner group acts as a levered echo of the coin. The miner-specific overhang is also easing: per The Block on 2026-09-24, JPMorgan noted bitcoin moving back above its roughly $85,000 production cost, which reduces the pressure on miners to liquidate holdings. That matters for these three names because the selling pressure has been real — RIOT's Q4 2025 quarter showed a $690.7M net loss and MARA's $1.71B net loss (period ended 2025-12-31) — so any easing of forced coin sales is a direct fundamental tailwind.

#### MARA Revenue

Revenue trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; first value is near zero; use the latest value directly.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2011-07-31 | $0 |
| 2013-06-30 | $1524979 |
| 2013-09-30 | $710500 |
| 2013-12-31 | $3418371 |
| 2014-03-31 | $2780000 |
| 2014-06-30 | $3824500 |
| 2014-09-30 | $13455472 |
| 2014-12-31 | $21404469 |
| 2014-12-31 | $1344497 |
| 2015-03-31 | $4093869 |
| 2015-06-30 | $1368986 |
| 2015-09-30 | $6407997 |
| Latest Value | $6407997 |
| Ticker | MARA |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### RIOT Revenue

Revenue trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; +10104.8% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2017-03-31 | $24175 |
| 2017-06-30 | $24174 |
| 2017-09-30 | $24175 |
| 2017-12-31 | $269657 |
| 2017-12-31 | $197133 |
| 2018-03-31 | $925554 |
| 2018-06-30 | $2792794 |
| 2018-09-30 | $2366683 |
| 2018-12-31 | $7845000 |
| 2018-12-31 | $1759969 |
| 2019-03-31 | $1430000 |
| 2019-06-30 | $2467000 |
| Latest Value | $2467000 |
| Change Pct | $10104.756980351603 |
| Ticker | RIOT |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### CLSK sector percentile check

Ranks CLSK against 811 companies in its sector using CommonQuant fundamentals.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Free cash flow | \6.59679408138101th percentile |
| Ticker | CLSK |
| Sector | Financials |
| Peer Count | 811 |

### Insiders Were Selling, and the Cash Burns Are Still Brutal

Start with what the filed disclosures say. For the period ended 2026-06-30, both MARA and RIOT show net open-market insider selling, roughly -$2.1M and -$3.2M respectively, while CLSK's filing shows 6 institutional holders and no insider-direction signal. Two of the three names in this basket have insiders…

#### Backtested stress-test read

Shows the backtested sample behind the bear-case risk discussion.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Return | \2.631190339073255% |
| Win rate | \54.545454545454554% |
| Max drawdown | \10.181228802052464% |
| Trades | 11 count |
| Timeframe | 9 months |

#### CLSK Free cash flow

Free cash flow trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; -256.4% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2014-12-31 | $-108654 |
| 2015-03-31 | $-79240 |
| 2015-06-30 | $-42317 |
| 2015-09-30 | $-267614 |
| 2015-09-30 | $-37403 |
| 2015-12-31 | $-76248 |
| 2016-03-31 | $-73092 |
| 2016-06-30 | $-66745 |
| 2016-09-30 | $-447838 |
| 2016-09-30 | $-231753 |
| 2016-12-31 | $-312297 |
| 2017-03-31 | $-387270 |
| Latest Value | $-387270 |
| Change Pct | $-256.4249820531228 |
| Ticker | CLSK |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

#### MARA Operating margin

Operating margin trend from CommonQuant fundamentals/XBRL data; -151.6% from first to latest point.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| 2013-06-30 | \-0.537772651295526% |
| 2013-09-30 | \-1.4664869809992962% |
| 2013-12-31 | \-1.0752059972425465% |
| 2014-03-31 | \-0.10137877697841728% |
| 2014-06-30 | \-0.08255379788207609% |
| 2014-09-30 | \0.1532364676616324% |
| 2014-12-31 | \-0.28997346301840055% |
| 2014-12-31 | \-5.704758731332238% |
| 2015-03-31 | \-1.5387571023889626% |
| 2015-06-30 | \-6.257738939623926% |
| 2015-09-30 | \-0.4814930468912516% |
| 2015-12-31 | \-1.3531831992696306% |
| Latest Value | \-1.3531831992696306% |
| Change Pct | \-151.627373762822% |
| Ticker | MARA |
| Timeframe | reported periods |

### Scores

- **Conviction score breakdown:** 56
- **Thesis support:** 72
- **Trade readiness:** 40
- **Risk quality:** 55
- **Backtest evidence:** 55
- **Fundamentals trend:** 60

### Watch items

- **CLSK — RSI (14) fresh cross above 50**
- **MARA — RSI (14) fresh cross above 50**
- **RIOT — RSI (14) fresh cross above 50**
- **MARA — ADX (14)**
- **RIOT — ADX (14)**
- **MARA — Insider open-market net sales**
- **RIOT — Insider open-market net sales**
- **MARA — Quarterly revenue trend**
- **CLSK — Bitcoin production-cost threshold (thesis-level)**

## Key details

- Symbols: CLSK, MARA, RIOT
- Timeframes: 1d
- Tags: \#canonical-demand, \#cluster-version:1, \#direction:bullish, \#entity-kind:instrument, \#entity:CLSK, \#entity:MARA, \#entity:RIOT, \#horizon:unspecified, \#intent:research, \#symbol:CLSK, \#symbol:MARA, \#symbol:RIOT

## Community

- Upvotes: 0
- Views: 0
- Copies: 0
- Cosigns: 0

## News sources

- [Bitcoin ETFs turn positive for 2026 with $2.4 billion weekly inflow, their largest since October](https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-26-bitcoin-etfs-turn-positive-for-2026-with-2-4-billion-weekly-inflow-their-largest-since-october-416944) — The Block
- [JPMorgan says bitcoin crossing $85,000 production cost could ease miner selling pressure](https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-24-jpmorgan-bitcoin-production-cost-miners-relief-416283) — The Block
- [Bitcoin slides to $83,300 as bond yields hit highest level since 2007](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/24/bitcoin-steadies-near-usd84-000-after-bond-yields-hit-a-2007-high) — CoinDesk
- [New York Fed’s Williams says it's 'reasonable' to expect another rate hike by year-end](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/feds-williams-another-rate-hike-by-year-end.html) — CNBC

## Related

- [CLSK trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/markets/clsk)
- [MARA trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/markets/mara)
- [RIOT trade ideas](https://commonquant.ai/markets/riot)
- [Latest market news](https://commonquant.ai/news)

## About CommonQuant Research

Ideas and Advanced Analysis are generated with fresh, LLM-selected news headlines and grounded in SEC XBRL fundamentals and peer percentiles. Strategies built from these ideas are automatically backtested (over a timeframe-dependent historical window with walk-forward tuning) and stress-tested before they can go live, then monitored against the news hourly while they run.